Week 11 of the fantasy football season is upon us. This week on Amazon Prime, we get a game between two divisional contenders looking to keep playoff hopes alive, as the Tennessee Titans head to Lambeau Field to face the Green Bay Packers. With no time to waste, here are the top start/sit plays for Week 11 of Thursday Night Football.
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
It’s safe to say it has not been the season that Aaron Rodgers expected. The offense has struggled without a dominant number one on the perimeter, and Rodgers has played subpar football by his standards. Once a consistent finisher inside the top 10, Rodgers has just two QB1 performances but has finished inside the top 14 in 60% of his games.
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He had a needed bounce-back last week with over 19 PPR points and three touchdowns for fewer than 225 yards through the air. If you attack Tennessee, you do it through the air. The Titans are 11th in yards per attempt allowed, 14th in touchdown percentage allowed, and fifth in points allowed but have one of the tougher run defenses. If you have Rodgers, you can start him as a low-end QB1 on Thursday night.
Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee, Titans
Few things in life are as inevitable as Derrick Henry. Let me just give you an example of that and tip my cap to the Denver Broncos last week. Since the turn of the decade, Henry had only been held under 55 yards rushing yards once, coming into last week. Denver held him to 53 yards on 19 carries.
Green Bay doesn’t stand a chance. Henry is the RB5 while averaging 24.2 touches and 119.7 total yards per game, and Green Bay’s defense sits amongst the bottom few teams in rushing yards allowed, EPA, and rushing DVOA.
Henry has 100 or more rushing yards in five of his last six games and aims to make it his six-straight road game with a rushing touchdown and fifth straight with 100 yards on the ground. He can also become the fifth player ever with 10+ rushing touchdowns in five straight seasons.
In a game where the windchill will feel around 18°, I feel bad for anyone trying to stop Henry. Take the higher on his 99.5 rushing yards over on Underdog and start Henry as a top-two RB for fantasy this week.
Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers
If there’s been one player fantasy managers have been able to rely on (for the most part) in Green Bay in 2022, it’s Aaron Jones, who sits as the overall RB12 and is on a bit of a hot streak.
Since Week 7, he’s played on over 65% of the snaps and averaged 129.6 total yards on just over 22 touches. Since then, he also has nearly 60% of the team’s rushing attempts and a 15.6% target share.
Of the two backs in Green Bay’s tandem, Jones is the only one you can start in Week 11. But it’s still not a good matchup. Tennessee’s defense sits third in EPA, second in rushing yards allowed, first in DVOA, and fifth in points per game (18.7 PPR) allowed. They’ve been just as stingy against running backs out of the backfield, but Jones’ role is too good to pass up.
Allen Lazard, WR, Green Bay Packers
Entering the week with a 21% target share and 31% air yard share, Allen Lazard has been the wide receiver to roster in Green Bay this year, but he was disappointing last week. Lazard caught three of his four targets for 45 yards in what seemed like a deliberate attempt not to target Trevon Diggs.
Lazard should bounce back as a low-end WR2 against a Titans defense that allows the third-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
Christian Watson, WR, Green Bay Packers
The standout performer of last week was Christian Watson. He turned in a Randy Moss-style performance by catching four of his eight targets for 107 yards and three touchdowns.
Green Bay appeared to make a deliberate effort to target the middle of the field more, and with Watson seemingly past his hamstring injury, that allowed him to excel with his vertical speed. The Titans have one of the worst deep ball rates as a defense, and while Watson might very well be a boom-or-bust receiver, there’s enough upside to start him as a WR3.
Robert Tonyan, TE, Green Bay Packers
It’s safe to say Robert Tonyan is well past his incredible 2020 season, as the consistency has not been there this year. But if the matchup is good, Tonyan has shown up. He has a 14.3% target share and sits 11th on the season in red-zone targets.
This is one of those matches where Tonyan should have success. The 14.69 PPR points Tennessee allows to the position is the fifth worst in the league, and the Titans are also sixth in receiving yards and fifth in yards per reception allowed. Tonyan should have a decent day, but if he can find the end zone, it could be a great one.
Ryan Tannehill, QB, Tennessee Titans
Making his return after an injury forced him out of the last few games, Ryan Tannehill threw for 255 yards, two touchdowns, and no picks in Week 10. And that’s about all you can expect out of him, as his most important job is to turn around and hand the ball off.
Tannehill sits 30th in points per game and has yet to complete more than 20 passes in a game since Week 1. Green Bay has given up the sixth-fewest points per game to quarterbacks this year, and it’s doubtful the Tennessee wide receivers will be able to win their individual matchups. Tannehill is a low-end QB2 for fantasy in Week 11.
AJ Dillon, Green Bay Packers
Well, so much for that AJ Dillon breakout season. He sits 48th in points per game, 24th in yards, and has the same number of rushing touchdowns as Colt McCoy (1). It’s worth noting, though, that Dillon has been doing better as of late, averaging 10.3 touches and 46.8 total yards since Week 7 with two RB3 finishes.
Unfortunately, this is a terrible matchup for Dillon, as he does not see the same receiving upside that will possibly salvage Jones’ night. Dillon is a low-upside, touchdown-dependent RB3 on Thursday night.
Treylon Burks, WR, Tennessee Titans
After being sidelined since Week 4, Treylon Burks made his return and saw a healthy 76% route participation. He also had a 16.2% target share but caught three of six targets for 24 yards.
The downside is that Burks is not being used the same way Tennessee utilized AJ Brown. Last week alone, he only had a 3.3 aDOT and is likely on the losing side of the matchup against either Jaire Alexander or Rasul Douglas. Barring a fluke touchdown, there’s not enough upside to trust Burks on a low-scoring Thursday night game.
Robert Woods, WR, Tennessee, Titans
At this point, Robert Woods should not be on rosters. He has yet to record five or more receptions in a game and has 40 yards or more just once (Week 4). He’s 91st in points per game, and his only reliable contribution is as a run blocker.
I was hoping Woods could fight off Father Time, but I don’t think even that would’ve helped his season with this usage. Stay away from Woods outside of potentially his unders for some props.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, WR, Tennessee Titans
Credit where credit is due, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine had a fantastic game last week. He had a career-high 119 receiving yards on five of eight receiving and finished with two touchdowns, including a 63-yarder.
It’s not the first time we’ve seen Nick Westbrook-Ikhine have some success, as he operated as the number one for a few games last year when both A.J. Brown and Julio Jones were injured. With that said, if we are not starting Burks or Woods, we’re certainly not starting Westbrook-Ikhine, either. If you want to take a few dark throws in DFS, fine. But leave him there and off of your Week 11 fantasy football roster.