After a 31-8 week picking straight up, we here at Pro Football Network are now 91 games over .500 with our moneyline bets on the season. Can we keep the good vibes going? We’ll certainly try with our NFL Week 10 Picks and Predictions.
NFL Picks and Predictions: Lock of the Week
Giants -6.5; Giants -285, Texans +228; O/U 40.5
Coming off the bye, the Giants are rested and ready to prove their first half of the season was no fluke.
They’ll have plenty of opportunities to prove it. New York has four games against the NFC’s five best teams in the season’s final seven weeks. But first, the Giants get warmups against two of the league’s worst teams — facing the Houston Texans and Detroit Lions at home over the next two weeks.
MORE: NFL Super Bowl Odds 2023
The Giants have taken care of business against the dregs they’ve faced up until now, beating all four teams they have faced that currently have losing records.
The bottom might be falling out for the Texans, who, after keeping their first five games close, have been outscored 84-47 in their three games since.
Look for Saquon Barkley to feast. The Texans are 30th in yards per play allowed (6.0) and yards per carry allowed (5.5).
Beasley: Giants 26, Texans 15
Miller: Giants 23, Texans 17
Robinson: Giants 24, Texans 14
NFL Picks and Predictions: Upset of the Week
Buccaneers -2.5; Buccaneers -145, Seahawks +122; O/U 44.5
We’ll keep taking the Seattle Seahawks until the market corrects. They’re getting points despite being an empirically better team than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers — and it’s not particularly close.
The Seahawks have a superior point differential, DVOA, offensive EPA, and net points-per-drive average.
They might even have the edge at quarterback — as crazy as that is to even ponder.
Tom Brady turned back the clock last week with a vintage game-winning drive, but it shouldn’t obscure the fact that he’s 16th in QBR (51.4), 29th in yards per attempt (6.4), 13th in passer rating (90.5) and 16th in EPA+CPOE composite (.07).
Geno Smith, meanwhile, is fourth in QBR (68), sixth in yards per pass (7.8), third in rating (107.2), and fourth in EPA+CPOE (.15).
Beasley: Seahawks 23, Buccaneers 21
Miller: Seahawks 28, Buccaneers 21
Robinson: Seahawks 24, Buccaneers 21
More NFL Picks and Predictions
Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers
Falcons -3; Falcons -160, Panthers +135; O/U 44
The Atlanta Falcons no longer sit atop the NFC South but look to at least keep pace with the Buccaneers as they face the Carolina Panthers on Thursday Night Football. Anything can happen on Thursday night games. The Falcons go on the road with just three days of rest to Carolina, who they beat by just three points at home two weeks ago.
Nobody could have predicted Atlanta’s offense would be as productive as it’s been over the first half of the season, especially given Kyle Pitts’ and Drake London’s… interesting usage rates. But they run the ball incredibly well, and they are 10th in offensive points per drive for the season.
Meanwhile, the Panthers have been bad in just about every facet of the game. PJ Walker will make another start against the Falcons after being benched against the Cincinnati Bengals a week ago. Baker Mayfield was an upgrade in relief, but Carolina is sticking with the QB who beat the Buccaneers three weeks ago.
— Dalton Miller
Beasley: Falcons 22, Panthers 21
Miller: Falcons 21, Panthers 17
Robinson: Falcons 26, Panthers 17
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Chiefs -9.5; Chiefs -480, Jaguars +360; O/U 50.5
This is a very generous line, considering the Jaguars’ six losses have all been by eight points or less. The Jags are still learning how to win — their 17-point rally against the Raiders in Week 9 was a big step in that direction — but they have the talent to play with any team for three quarters.
If playoff spots were determined by advanced stats and not wins and losses, Jacksonville would have a real shot at making the tournament. The Jaguars are in the top half of the league in yard and point differential, offensive and defensive efficiency, DVOA, and net points per drive. They’d probably be leading the division if not for their 13 giveaways.
The good news for Jacksonville? Only four teams have had fewer takeaways (8) in 2022. The Titans in Week 9 provided the blueprint of how to play the Chiefs close: run the ball twice as often as you throw it.
Granted, that’s easier said than done with Derrick Henry. But the Jaguars have a better passing game, with an improving Trevor Lawrence 13th in EPA+CPOE since Week 6.
Of course, all of that will be moot if good Patrick Mahomes shows up. He’s been spectacular again this year. But on plays in which Mahomes is pressured, he’s made mistakes, completing just 46.2% of his passes and throwing four interceptions. The Jaguars are fifth in pass-rush win rate this year (50%).
— Adam H. Beasley
Beasley: Chiefs 29, Jaguars 23
Miller: Chiefs 31, Jaguars 23
Robinson: Chiefs 30, Jaguars 20
Minnesota Vikings vs. Buffalo Bills
Bills -5; Bills -235, Vikings +192; O/U 45.5
The game of the week being in the early-afternoon slate is a kick in the pants to NFL fans everywhere. These teams are a combined 13-3, and there is added drama with Josh Allen’s UCL injury.
By every metric imaginable, Buffalo is a better football team than the Minnesota Vikings, aside from the former’s win-loss record. There is little doubt at this point that Minnesota will walk away with the NFC North title. Their prime competition, the Green Bay Packers, are 3-6 with an offense that looks inept. Minnesota’s most important stretch of games comes up now.
Meanwhile, the Bills are coming off a surprising loss to the surging New York Jets, whose defense looked at home covering the plethora of Buffalo Bills offensive weapons. Minnesota will probably have to find a little more offense than they’ve been showing recently if they want to keep up with Buffalo.
— Dalton Miller
Beasley: Bills 24, Vikings 20
Miller: Bills 24, Vikings 23
Robinson: Bills 26, Vikings 22
Cleveland Browns vs. Miami Dolphins
Dolphins -3.5; Dolphins -195, Browns +162; O/U 48.5
What to make of the Dolphins? They’ve won three straight and haven’t lost a game this year in which Tua Tagovailoa has started and finished.
But they haven’t been super-impressive for more than a month. Their recent winning streak has come against three of the seven worst teams in the league. The Dolphins have been outscored by teams currently with winning records by 24 points this year.
Their offense is spectacular — first in yards per pass (8.2), second in yards per play (6.3) and goal-to-go (92.3%), and sixth in the red zone (69%), but their defense is bad and, even with Bradley Chubb aboard, is showing little signs of improvement.
Miami allowed Justin Fields to gain the most rushing yards by a quarterback in a regular season game in NFL history in Week 9 (178), and are a sieve on both third downs (holding opponents to 44.7%) and in the red zone (70%).
Coming off a bye, the Browns should be rested and ready to build on their Halloween massacre of the Bengals. The Browns are probably better than their 3-5 record. They rank in the top 10 league-wide in yard differential, yards gained per play, and offensive EPA. Cleveland’s issue is the same as Miami’s: defense.
Regardless of what the records say, these are two evenly-matched teams.
— Adam H. Beasley
Beasley: Dolphins 25, Browns 24
Miller: Dolphins 35, Browns 24
Robinson: Dolphins 31, Browns 26
New Orleans Saints vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Saints -2.5; Saints -140, Steelers +118; O/U 40.5
Two teams that had winning records a season ago look lost in 2022.
The Steelers are in trouble not only in the present but moving forward into the future as well. They have questions to answer on the offensive line, at wide receiver, and, unfortunately, at quarterback as well.
The rest of 2022 will revolve around trying to get the clearest picture of what Kenny Pickett’s ceiling may be. If they pick high enough in 2023, they may have to choose between him and a top QB prospect.
The Saints are a complete mystery. Some weeks, their offense is outstanding, scoring points and moving the ball in bunches. However, they rank 21st in offensive DVOA.
Their defense shut out the Las Vegas Raiders but has allowed at least 20 points in every other game this season. Losing Dennis Allen as defensive coordinator to be the head coach could be part of the problem. But despite their 2-6 record, they are somehow still in the thick of the NFC South race if they can get a win against Pittsburgh.
— Dalton Miller
Beasley: Saints 23, Steelers 20
Miller: Saints 23, Steelers 20
Robinson: Saints 23, Steelers 17
Denver Broncos vs. Tennessee Titans
Titans -3; Titans -155, Broncos +130; O/U 39
Any game with an over/under below 40 points is an absolute delight. With no offense expected between the two teams, expect all of the offense to suddenly show up.
For reference, Denver has the second-best defense in the NFL according to DVOA, and Tennessee ranks 10th. Denver has struggled offensively, and Tennessee’s secondary is outstanding.
The Titans’ defensive backfield is incredibly well-coached, passing routes off in zone coverage, and has the talent to man up against most receiving corps in the league. Losing Harold Landry was a massive blow, but having Denico Autry and Jeffery Simmons helps ease the pain of that loss.
Speaking of unbelievable secondary play, the Denver Broncos might have the best in the NFL. Patrick Surtain II is the best cornerback in the NFL, and the rest of the unit has played outstanding football so far in 2022. The biggest question is whether their offense can turn things around after the bye week. If they can, they still have an opportunity to climb back into the playoff picture.
— Dalton Miller
Beasley: Broncos 21, Titans 19
Miller: Titans 15, Broncos 10
Robinson: Titans 21, Broncos 17
Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears
Bears -3; Bears -155, Lions +130; O/U 48.5
There is an undercurrent of optimism for both Detroit and Chicago despite their collective 5-12 record. The Lions pulled off an upset against Green Bay last week and saw some exciting plays from key young players, while the Bears are getting better and better play out of Justin Fields, even if it doesn’t always come with a win.
At some point, the Lions are going to have to win more games to justify Dan Campbell’s place as the head coach, and the Bears are going to have to see more than just “progress” from Fields to be confident in what he can do. But this isn’t a bad place for both teams, all things considered.
That said, this becomes a matchup of trench play — significantly worse for the Bears after the trade deadline, but always a disadvantage against the Lions — versus a Chicago skill group that is interesting but not enough to support their developing quarterback.
The Lions have a sieve of a defense that will likely allow Fields, David Montgomery, Darnell Mooney, and the newly acquired Chase Claypool to run all over them, but how the depleted Chicago defense responds to Detroit’s rushing attack will matter just as much.
— Arif Hasan
Beasley: Bears 26, Lions 22
Miller: Bears 33, Lions 31
Robinson: Bears 23, Lions 19
Dallas Cowboys vs. Green Bay Packers
Cowboys -5; Cowboys -235, Packers +192; O/U 43
With Dak Prescott back and firing on all cylinders, there’s a good chance that the Cowboys could enter the discussion as one of the league’s best teams.
Leading the charge to that end is the Cowboys’ defense, one of the best in the NFL, with some of the most exciting young players at their positions (particularly Micah Parsons and Trevon Diggs). But the Dallas defense hasn’t been pristine, and some errors against the Bears and Eagles over their past three games reveal that there are ways to beat them with a smart enough game plan.
The Packers seemingly have the tools for that. While it is fair to question the receiving group, it has grown and developed over the season, and there’s still a Hall of Famer at quarterback. With home-field advantage in a cold climate, Green Bay might be able to score some points.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys have had one good game at quarterback all year. It’s reasonable to think they’ll continue to get more good performances from Prescott, but it’s no guarantee. The Packers’ defense is incredibly talented, even with the loss of Rashan Gary. Getting everyone on the same page is critical to their success, and the Cowboys haven’t had much time as a potent offense, either.
— Arif Hasan
Beasley: Cowboys 26, Packers 17
Miller: Cowboys 30, Packers 15
Robinson: Cowboys 27, Packers 20
Indianapolis Colts vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Raiders -6; Raiders -260, Colts +210; O/U 42.5
The Colts are in disarray, and there’s not much security available to the coaching or front office staff. With a new head coach and new play caller but no new answers at quarterback or along the offensive line, it’s difficult to see how they could compete.
A shakeup is good, though — and perhaps this could get that group, with its exciting young receiving corps and dynamic running back, back on track.
Defensively, the Colts are like the Packers — full of talent that can’t pull together to turn in a complete performance. But there’s a lot there to work with and a sea change up top might proliferate into defensive potential.
That said, it’s hard to believe that will happen, especially right away. Right now, the Raiders, who, despite their record, have been playing better over the past few weeks, can right the ship with a more consistent offense; they have some of the most explosive weapons in the league. They aren’t special defensively but have made slow improvements on that side of the ball as well.
The Raiders have some problems, but the Colts are in crisis. It could be the case that they’ve emerged from that crisis, but until then, it’s hard to trust them.
— Arif Hasan
Beasley: Raiders 25, Colts 18
Miller: Colts 17, Raiders 16
Robinson: Raiders 25, Colts 14
Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Rams
Rams -3; Rams -170, Cardinals +143; O/U 43.5
At this time a year ago, the 8-1 Cardinals and the 7-2 Rams were battling for NFC West supremacy. Twelve months later, both teams are below .500 and simply trying to remain relevant.
Arizona and Los Angeles both rank in the bottom four in yards per play, so this game is unlikely to feature offensive fireworks. Kyler Murray has nosedived in recent games, taking nine sacks and committing three turnovers over the last two weeks. He’s posted a QBR below 50 in three of his last four outings and will now face Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey.
L.A.’s offensive performance has been even more brutal than the Cardinals’. Matthew Stafford completed just 13 passes in last week’s loss to the Buccaneers, with nine going to Cooper Kupp. Arizona’s defense can be beaten, so the Rams can hope a few explosive plays to Kupp will be enough for the victory. Anything more than that is likely asking too much of the current Los Angeles offense.
— Dallas Robinson
Beasley: Cardinals 23, Rams 21
Miller: Cardinals 20, Rams 17
Robinson: Rams 24, Cardinals 20
Los Angeles Chargers vs. San Francisco 49ers
49ers -7; 49ers -335, Chargers +260; O/U 45.5
The Chargers have one more win than the 49ers, but the strength of the AFC means Los Angeles has worse postseason odds than San Francisco. With a divisional matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs on tap in Week 11, the Chargers would do well to lock in a victory on Sunday night.
L.A. will again be without Mike Williams, and Keenan Allen could be sidelined too. Without their top two receivers, the Chargers will struggle to pick up chunk yardage. They’ve managed only 52 plays of at least 15 yards this season, eighth-fewest in the NFL, while the 49ers have allowed just 47 15-plus yard plays, sixth-fewest in the league.
After getting his feet wet with the 49ers in Week 8, Christian McCaffrey exploded for 183 yards from scrimmage and three total touchdowns in Week 9. San Francisco will likely feed CMC once again against the Chargers, who have allowed at least 200 yards rushing in three of their last four games. With Deebo Samuel likely to return after missing last week’s contest, the 49ers have superior units on both sides of the ball.
— Dallas Robinson
Beasley: 49ers 29, Chargers 18
Miller: 49ers 24, Chargers 18
Robinson: 49ers 27, Chargers 25
Washington Commanders vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Eagles -11; Eagles -550, Commanders +400; O/U 44
The undefeated Eagles will face their first rematch of the season in a second game against the division rival Commanders, who Philadelphia defeated 24-8 in Week 3.
Washington is essentially the only team that’s had any success stopping the Eagles’ diverse run game this season. Philadelphia posted a season-low 72 rushing yards against the Commanders. They ranked 30th in rushing EPA and 29th in success rate that week — they have finished in the top 11 of both categories every other week.
With the rushing attack flailing against Washington, Jalen Hurts decided to put up one of his best passing performances of the season: 22 of 35 for 340 yards, three touchdowns, and an 86.9 QBR. The Commanders don’t have the cornerbacks to keep up with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, so the Eagles will likely execute the same game plan this time around.
The recipe for a Washington upset? Run against an Eagles defense that’s surrendered at least 120 rushing yards in each of its last four games, keep the ball out of Hurts’ hands, and hope for a few downfield shots from Taylor Heinicke to Terry McLaurin.
— Dallas Robinson
Beasley: Eagles 29, Commanders 15
Miller: Eagles 24, Commanders 17
Robinson: Eagles 28, Commanders 15
Season standings through nine weeks
Adam Beasley: 78-57-1 straight up, 64-68-4 against the spread
Dalton Miller: 80-55-1, 62-70-4
Dallas Robinson: 90-45-1, 68-64-4