The NFL offseason is supposed to be relaxing for sportsbooks. Instead, they’re constantly shuffling futures odds based on NFL transactions. From the Russell Wilson trade to Tom Brady’s un-retirement to the Davante Adams blockbuster to Deshaun Watson’s relocation to the Tyreek Hill blockbuster, the odds are in constant flux. Let’s look at the latest NFL odds for Super Bowl 57 from sportsbooks following the most recent Hill deal.
Super Bowl 57 odds
Football has such a short season, yet it feels like it never leaves the news. Since last week, the Seahawks traded Wilson to the Broncos, the Colts traded Carson Wentz to the Commanders, Brady returned for his age-45 season, Adams is a Raider, and now Watson is on the Browns.
There have been and will be plenty of signings that don’t move the needle on Super Bowl 57 odds or NFL futures. But every time one does, sportsbooks have to adjust. Here are the teams currently favored to win Super Bowl 57. These lines are from DraftKings Sportsbook as of 2 PM ET on March 23.
The Bills’ lead has widened a bit
Just four days ago, the Bills were sitting at +700. Now, they’re at +650. This line is logical — the Bills would’ve been the favorite to win Super Bowl 56 had they been able to stop Patrick Mahomes from gaining 40 yards on two plays in 13 seconds (and not picked the worst possible time to finally lose a coin toss).
Josh Allen is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. The Bills are bringing back the majority of their playmakers. They did release Cole Beasley, but that feels more like addition by subtraction. Now, Gabriel Davis can start on the outside, and Isaiah McKenzie can be their primary slot receiver. They also signed some guy named Von Miller. The Bills deserve their status as Super Bowl favorites.
The Chiefs and Buccaneers are tied for second
In the least surprising news of all time, Brady’s return catapulted the Bucs’ Super Bowl 57 odds back into the top four. With Watson not going to an NFC South team, Tampa Bay’s odds improved slightly from +850 to +800. I said earlier this week I expected that price to be the best bettors would get all offseason on the Bucs. Early returns suggest that was quite prescient of me!
The Chiefs’ odds dropped slightly after Adams went to the Raiders as that impacts KC’s chances of winning the AFC West. Their odds didn’t move after adding JuJu Smith-Schuster, but he is easily the best WR2 of Mahomes’ career. Mahomes has hosted four consecutive AFC Championship games. It certainly wouldn’t be surprising to see them host a fifth.
The Packers’ odds keep dropping
Following Aaron Rodgers’ return, the Packers’ odds to win Super Bowl 57 matched the Chiefs at +750. Following Adams’ departure, they dropped down to +850. After the Watson deal, they dropped even further to +1000.
Currently, the Packers have the worst group of pass catchers in the NFL. They need to sign a veteran free agent. Allen Robinson and JuJu Smith-Schuster would have been ideal, but the Packers were unable to make that happen (if they were even trying). This team has to spend high draft capital on a rookie. If they don’t, expect their odds to drop even further. As great as Rodgers is, the Packers are not a legitimate Super Bowl contender if they enter the season with Allen Lazard as their WR1.
What about the defending Super Bowl champions?
The Rams’ odds actually dropped over the past four days. They were +1100 on Monday. Now, they’re +1200. That is slightly surprising for a team that just added Robinson.
They’re still fifth on the list but remain behind the Packers and Bucs in the NFC. If it’s not the Bucs in the Super Bowl for the second time in three years, my money would be on the Rams and the Broncos (+1400) before the Packers.
The Browns have entered the fold
Now tied with the Broncos at +1400 are the Cleveland Browns. They mortgaged the future to acquire Watson. They’ve gone from Baker Mayfield throwing to Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry to Watson throwing to Amari Cooper and a presently unknown WR2.
If the Browns don’t sign a veteran WR2 (Will Fuller says hello) or draft one in the second round, I expect these odds to drop. There’s also the specter of a Watson suspension. The longer it is, the longer the Browns’ Super Bowl 57 odds will be.
Tyreek Hill has boosted the Dolphins’ Super Bowl odds
Following yet another blockbuster trade which saw the Dolphins acquire Tyreek Hill from the Chiefs, sportsbooks immediately reacted. The Dolphins’ Super Bowl odds went from +5500 to +3500.
Elite wide receivers matter. The Dolphins added Hill and did not lose any players, only draft picks. This is still a team that needs improvement from its quarterback, but if Hill can turn Tua Tagovailoa into 2017 Alex Smith, the Dolphins aren’t a bad long-shot Super Bowl bet.
The rest of Super Bowl 2023 betting odds
- Buffalo Bills +650
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers +750
- Kansas City Chiefs +900
- Green Bay Packers +900
- Los Angeles Rams +1100
- Denver Broncos +1400
- San Francisco 49ers +1500
- Dallas Cowboys +1600
- Los Angeles Chargers +1600
- Cleveland Browns +1700
- Cincinnati Bengals +1800
- Indianapolis Colts +2000
- Baltimore Ravens +2200
- Arizona Cardinals +2200
- Tennessee Titans +2800
- Miami Dolphins +3500
- New England Patriots +4000
- Minnesota Vikings +4000
- Las Vegas Raiders +4000
- Philadelphia Eagles +4500
- New Orleans Saints +5000
- Atlanta Falcons +5500
- Washington Commanders +6000
- Pittsburgh Steelers +6500
- Seattle Seahawks +10000
- New York Giants +10000
- Chicago Bears +10000
- Jacksonville Jaguars +10000
- Carolina Panthers +10000
- Detroit Lions +15000
- New York Jets +20000
- Houston Texans +20000