After finishing a disappointing 7-10 in their first season without Sean Payton in 17 years, the New Orleans Saints enter 2023 tied for the 12th-best Super Bowl odds. Going into this season, New Orleans is a projected playoff team and the favorite to win the NFC South. With their acquisition of QB Derek Carr and the NFL’s easiest schedule, will the Saints bounce back this season? Here is an NFL betting preview with their futures odds, a best bet, and more.
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New Orleans Saints Futures Odds
All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless noted otherwise.
Super Bowl Odds: +3000
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NFC Odds: +1200
NFC South Odds: +120
Win Total: 9.5 (Over +105/Under -125)
To Make/Miss the Playoffs: -190/+160
New Orleans Saints Offense
After 15 years of continuity at quarterback with Drew Brees, the Saints have experienced some inconsistency at the position over the past two seasons. With their acquisition of Carr, New Orleans hopes that they’ll reclaim at least some of the production back they used to get from Brees for so many years.
Despite running back Alvin Kamara’s suspension and the lack of durability from wide receiver Michael Thomas, Carr has a strong unit around him on offense. Chris Olave is a budding WR star, recording over 1,000 receiving yards as a rookie last season, and WR Rashid Shaheed is a nice deep threat, averaging 17.4 yards per catch in 2022.
RB Jamaal Williams was a nice addition to New Orleans’ offense this offseason after leading the NFL in rushing touchdowns last year in the regular season. He will be running behind a solid offensive line as well, with former first-round picks at 4/5 positions.
New Orleans Saints Defense
This was the strength of the Saints last season, ranking sixth in yards allowed per game and ninth in points allowed. New Orleans’ pass defense was particularly impressive, finishing only behind the Philadelphia Eagles in passing yards allowed per game.
If there was one area of weakness for this defense last year, it was stopping the run, ranking 24th in rushing yards allowed on average. To improve their run defense, the Saints signed DT Khalen Saunders away from the Kansas City Chiefs in free agency and drafted DT Bryan Bresee in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft.
One Betting Trend To Know
Unders have hit in 10 of the Saints’ last 11 games against top-10 rushing defenses over the past two seasons, per PFN’s Betting & Fantasy Analyst Kyle Soppe using Inside Edge.
Best Bet for the Saints in 2023
Bearman: Honestly didn’t think I’d end up on the Saints of all teams, but after seeing Chris Fallica’s write-up for Dennis Allen as a Coach of the Year pick, I gave the schedule a look.
Hear me out: They play in one of the two worst divisions in football and are the +120 favorite to win the NFC South. A 4-2 record against the Falcons, Bucs, and Panthers is conservative, considering they’re favorites.
New Orleans also plays all four teams in the AFC South, arguably the worst division in football. Let’s give them another conservative 2-2 vs. the Jags, Titans, Colts, and Texans; 3-1 is quite possible.
In the NFC, the Saints get the North and should be able to go 2-2. With a very conservative 8-6 there, they’d have to go 2-1 against the Giants, Rams, and Pats. All winnable.
Early game lines have the Saints favored in 11 of 17 games, a one-point dog in three more, and an underdog of no more than three points in any game. I did this exercise with the spread last year and deemed the 9.5 for Philly to be the strap. They won the first eight and 14 of 17. Just saying.
Over 9.5 wins
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