The Miami Dolphins have been one of the biggest winners of the 2022 NFL offseason, which is reflected in their current win total, as predictions suggest they are a team on the rise. However, are the Dolphins one of the best bets for those looking for early win total action at your sportsbook? Let’s look at the latest NFL odds as Miami looks to contend in 2022.
Miami Dolphins 2022 NFL win total and odds
Miami Dolphins: 9 wins (-110)
To me, the decisions made by the Dolphins’ front office this offseason said one thing — there are no more excuses. Winning is the expectation and standard. Plain and simple.
Despite starting the year 1-7, the Dolphins ended as one of the hottest teams in the sport with a 9-8 record, falling just short of the playoffs. The fact they were even in it was impressive, given the hole they dug themselves into at the start. Second-year QB Tua Tagovailoa showed signs of improvement. Jaylen Waddle broke the NFL record for receptions by a rookie. And the Dolphins’ defense was 16th in points but No. 3 in pressure rate (28.5%) and No. 5 in sacks (48).
The building blocks were there. However, the Dolphins were a ways away from competing with the upper echelon of the AFC. For one, the Buffalo Bills still control the AFC East. Then, the conference as a whole became even more robust, with numerous players changing teams, including Russell Wilson (Broncos) and Davante Adams (Raiders). Miami had one choice: to make splash moves of their own.
The Dolphins are riding a massive wave of momentum
The first major move of Miami’s offseason was the addition of new head coach Mike McDaniel. He is viewed as one of the NFL’s next top-tier offensive masterminds and helped reshape the San Francisco 49ers alongside Kyle Shanahan. Not only will he help Tua, but McDaniel will revamp the Dolphins’ rushing game, which last season was one of the league’s worst in almost every efficiency metric.
Then came the additions to the roster. Raheem Mostert followed his old OC to Miami and is in a system in which he has thrived. The Dolphins also signed Chase Edmonds, one of the more efficient RBs in the NFL last season while playing for the Cardinals, and he can work in both the rushing and receiving game.
The offensive line saw a significant overhaul during the offseason
Yet, the Dolphins needed substantial upgrades to the offensive line. What do they do? Oh, just rebuild the entire left side of the offensive line with G Conner Williams and LT Terron Armstead, the No. 1 ranked OT of the 2022 free agent class.
Add in the expected growth of RT Liam Eichenberg and hopeful next steps for Michael Deiter, Robert Hunt, and even Austin Jackson, and the Dolphins look to have rebuilt their offensive line into a competent unit.
Miami walks out of free agency one of the offseasons biggest winners
The most significant move of the all came at wide receiver, as the Dolphins added Cedrick Wilson Jr. Wait, were you expecting someone else? Oh yeah, Miami traded a 2022 first-round pick (No. 29), 2022 second-round pick (No. 50), 2022 fourth-round pick, 2023 fourth-round pick, and a 2023 sixth-round pick to the Kansas City Chiefs for Tyreek freaking Hill. Even after trading away DeVante Parker for basically nothing, the Dolphins are loaded with weapons.
So not only did the Dolphins end up as the winners of free agency in most eyes, but their predicted win total has them only matching what they did last season. This directly conveys how confident the oddsmakers are in Tua actually being “the guy” for the Dolphins.
Miami Dolphins season-long prediction
Let’s start in the AFC East, as we know what the Dolphins have to face. For starters, this is still the Bills’ division. They are arguably the favorites of the AFC and will be favored in both games over the Dolphins. While Miami has closed the gap, even going 1-1 would be an accomplishment.
Both games against the New England Patriots will also be problematic. However, Tua is undefeated against the Pats (3-0) despite averaging just 152 passing yards per game. I favor the Dolphins for at least their home game, and they could even steal the contest in Foxborough.
As for the New York Jets, well, they’re going to have a high draft pick for a reason. The Dolphins could surprise many and go 5-1 in these games … or they could finish 3-3. It all depends on how quickly Tua and the offense gel under a first-time head coach.
Miami has three winnable games against the Chicago Bears, Houston Texans, and Detroit Lions. But things get a bit trickier from there. The Dolphins take on the Bengals, Ravens, Chargers, and 49ers on the road and will host the Browns, Packers, and Vikings.
Depending on when they play the Browns, this could mean the Dolphins will face Deshaun Watson, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Trey Lance, Aaron Rodgers, and Kirk Cousins (plus Josh Allen twice). Sure, teams are more than just their QB, but that one player sure does mean a lot.
Is their 9-win total prediction optimistic or just right?
Initially, the Dolphins opened with an 8.5-win total prediction. They would have been one of my best bets for the 2022 season if that had held. 9 wins feel right despite all the additions they have made this offseason. The Dolphins are competing for a Wild Card spot this year, but they’re doing it when the AFC is arguably the strongest it has ever been.
Winning double-digit games will be an arduous task for anyone, let alone a team with a new head coach and a QB still needing to prove he deserves to be the face of the franchise. The Dolphins made all of these moves to either win in 2022 or position themselves as a top destination for a 2023 free agent QB. If they fail to get out of the gates quickly, the latter might become a reality in this results-driven business.