The Jacksonville Jaguars have their NFL playoff destiny in their own hands heading into Thursday Night Football in Week 16. The changes in the fortunes of the Tennessee Titans have sent the Jaguars’ playoff odds plummeting to a point where they are now the betting favorite to win the AFC South.
Let’s examine the Jaguars’ chances of making the playoffs and how their remaining schedule needs to play out for them to head into the playoffs this season.
What Are the Jacksonville Jaguars Playoff Odds in 2022?
The news that Ryan Tannehill’s season is likely over means the Jaguars’ odds of making the playoffs look significantly different from yesterday. In many sportsbooks, the Jaguars head into Thursday’s game as a -140 or -145 favorite to win the AFC South.
According to FiveThirtyEight, the Jaguars’ chance of making the playoffs sit at 54%. Despite the Jaguars being one game behind the Titans in the NFL standings, they two face off in Week 18, which very well could be for the division. Therefore, the Jaguars have their future in their own hands when it comes to the playoffs this season.
What Is the Jaguars’ Remaining Schedule?
The Jaguars are currently on the outside looking in when it comes to the Week 16 playoff picture. At 6-8, they remain behind the Titans at 7-7. They are also two games behind the Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Chargers, who currently sit in the final two playoff spots at 8-6.
When we look through the Jaguars’ playoff chances heading into Week 16, the result of their Thursday game against the Jets could be a major factor. If the Jaguars win, their playoff chances, according to FiveThirtyEight, would climb from 54% to 68%. However, a loss would drop their chances down to 41% heading into the remainder of the Week 16 games.
Even if the Jaguars were to lose their next two games against the Jets and Houston Texans, they could feasibly still enter Week 18 with their future in their own hands. However, that would rely on the Titans also losing in the next two weeks. If the Jaguars lose their next two games, even a tie would be enough for the Titans to secure the division.
As long as the Jaguars match the Titans’ results over the next two weeks, they will enter Week 18 with their future in their hands. It is worth noting that even if the Jaguars win the next two and the Titans lose their next two, then Week 18 still looks likely to be a winner-take-all matchup.
If the Titans beat the Jaguars in Week 18, and the two teams have the same record, it would come down to the NFL playoff tiebreakers to decide the division winner. If the Jaguars beat the Texans and lose to the Titans, they would be 3-3 in the division. Similarly, if the Titans lose to the Texans and Jaguars, they would be 3-3 in the division.
It would then come down to the best win percentage in common games. Regardless of the results in the next three weeks, the Titans have an unassailable lead in that tiebreaker. Therefore, the Jaguars need to match the Titans’ record at least and have beaten them twice to have the superior head-to-head record.