If you’re making Los Angeles Rams vs. Buffalo Bills NFL DFS picks for Thursday Night Football Week 1, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated as well as fall short of expectations.
The following preliminary recommended lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Rams vs. Bills top TNF NFL DraftKings DFS picks
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players.
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics culled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Criteria such as age, durability, shifting personnel, schedule, and other factors help shape these final assessments. In the coming days, I’ll continually review this lineup in the context of late-breaking NFL news, and PFN will publish my final determination well before next week’s game.
Josh Allen, QB, Bills ($12,000)
I’m not anticipating a blowup game for Josh Allen, despite his consensus preseason QB1 ranking. This should be a tougher-than-expected matchup. That said, Allen’s floor is as high as any player on this field, and his ability to rack up points on the ground and through the air makes him an ideal DFS addition.
I’m putting Allen in my Captain slot, meaning he costs $18,000. So if he scores 18 DFS points, it would translate to 1.5x that amount (27 points).
Matthew Stafford, QB, Rams ($10,800)
Admittedly, I’m not excited to start Matthew Stafford in this game. That said, assuming Buffalo’s defensive line largely shuts down the running game, I’m envisioning more dump-offs than usual, as well as the occasional deep pass to one of his two big-time receivers.
Stafford is a great bet for 14+ points, and if this contest is lower-scoring than anticipated, that amount might make him one of the game’s highest scorers.
Gabriel Davis, WR, Bills ($7,200)
Stefon Diggs costs more, and I think their upsides are comparable against the Rams. When we last saw Gabriel Davis in a game that mattered in the standings, he scored four touchdowns on 201 receiving yards. Now, let’s not kid ourselves. A 5-60-1 line would be outstanding in Week 1. Let’s also understand that Davis could realistically go toe-to-toe with Diggs all season.
Allen Robinson, WR, Rams ($6,200)
Perhaps my favorite offseason signing of 2022. Ignore what Allen Robinson did (or rather, didn’t do) last season. He remains an upper-end NFL receiver and has now landed in a nearly ideal offense. While most eyes will be on Cooper Kupp, Robinson could push for equal looks — and yardage — in the Rams’ opener. I see this as a statement game for a player the Bears gave up on too soon.
Tyler Bass, K, Bills ($4,000)
This is where things get interesting. With $7,800 in salary remaining, we could add someone like Dawson Knox, and then go ultra-cheap with Tutu Atwell (one of my favorite non-starters in the league). But I simply don’t know how LA plans to utilize Atwell, and both teams have very capable kickers who can hit from deep. So I’m comfortable betting on 10+ DFS points from Tyler Bass.
Matt Gay, K, Rams ($3,800)
Of course, that leaves us with Matt Gay. Gay connected on two or more field goals in 12 games last year while missing only one of his first 32 attempts. For a team that won each of their final three playoff games by three points, Gay was one of the under-the-radar heroes. Against a tough Bills defense, don’t be surprised if he gets 5+ attempts.