We’ve analyzed the game’s highest-probability scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated as well as fall short of expectations. All prop bets are based on FanDuel Sportsbook or BetMGM.
49ers vs. Rams prop bets to target
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics culled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes. Criteria such as age, durability, shifting personnel, scheduling, and other factors help shape these final assessments.
49ers Week 4 prop bets
Is Jimmy Garoppolo an upgrade over Trey Lance? I would argue that we know how good Garoppolo is in this offense — and that Lance at his realistic best would be a bigger shot in the arm for an offense on the edge of greatness.
With that in mind, we can envision a solid outing for San Francisco tonight. Perhaps 17-20 points, or maybe 21-24. But I don’t see a blow-up game against the defending Super Bowl champs, even before a home crowd ranging from reticent to raving. Despite their slow start to the season, LA remains the “team to beat” in the NFC. They’re 2-1 and playing better each week. Garoppolo could have his hands full.
Meanwhile, I like Jeff Wilson Jr. in the passing game. He’s been a fairly consistent presence through the air, and not just this season. He offers terrific betting opportunities based on current lines.
Garoppolo passing yards under 224.5 (-115) — BetMGM
Garoppolo passing TDs under 1.5 (-175) — BetMGM
Wilson rushing yards under 55.5 (-114) — FanDuel
Wilson receptions over 1.5 (-160) — BetMGM
Wilson reception yards over 10.5 (-120) — BetMGM
Rams Week 4 prop bets
There are a few NFL teams that other teams don’t want to get hot. The Bucs come to mind, and the Rams certainly are on the same level. LA has a confident, talent-laden unit on both sides of the ball. If they win tonight, their Week 1 Thursday Night Football debacle will be a distant memory.
But I don’t think their success tonight will come from Matthew Stafford’s arm — or at least, not the arm some have come to know and love for much of the past decade. I’m anticipating more of a surgical approach, with short passes to guys like Cam Akers and Tyler Higbee.
In a game that easily could be decided by a field goal or two, going for the big play will take a backseat to field position and time of possession. That favors a middling-at-best performance from Stafford and plenty of looks for Akers and Higbee.
Stafford rushing yards under 2.5 (-120) — BetMGM
Stafford passing yards under 252.5 (-120) — BetMGM
Akers receiving yards over 7.5 (-110) — BetMGM
Akers rushing yards under 43.5 (-115) — BetMGM
Higbee receptions over 4.5 (+105) — BetMGM
Higbee receiving yards under 41.5 (-110) — BetMGM