We are in the middle of the rookie draft season when it comes to dynasty fantasy football. As more data becomes available and the further we get away from the 2022 NFL Draft, the more reliable ADP becomes. As we then head into our own drafts, we can see where the value is and where we might need to trade up to grab the desired target. Let’s take a look through a 2022 fantasy football rookie mock draft based on current ADP.
In this mock draft, we are going to do things slightly different. Rather than me telling you who I would pick, we’ll lay out the consensus rookie mock ADP from Sleeper right now according to the data collected by Twitter user Adeiko_FF. We will then look at what this means in terms of how you should approach drafts in the coming days.
The ADP data is from 60 rookie mocks that have been done in the last week. All 60 are 12-team leagues with a mixture of scoring settings in terms of TE premium.
1.01) Breece Hall, New York Jets (RB1)
At this point, it really seems like the only way you are getting Breece Hall in a rookie draft is if you have the first pick. There is a 5% chance that Hall slides to pick 2, but around 95% of the time he’s being taken first overall.
With uncertainty over the rest of the running back room, this presents an opportunity if you hold the first pick. Hall’s value may never be higher relatively than it is right now. Therefore, if you are loaded at RB, why not shop this pick and see what offers you get. A9 desperate owner may very well offer up a solid packet with more safety and equal amounts of upside.
1.02) Kenneth Walker III, Seattle Seahawks (RB2)
The second pick is where it gets interesting. Unsurprisingly, Kenneth Walker III is currently only being selected with the first pick in 0.4% of drafts. Therefore, Walker’s virtually a lock to be there with the second pick. After that, it drops to 55.7% availability with the third pick and 28.8% with the fourth.
With this in mind, if you’re picking outside the top four, you’re likely going to have to trade up to get Walker. In terms of whether you should, now that’s where I’m high on Walker.
The opportunity presented to the young RB in a run-heavy Seahawks offense with no clear QB1 is immense. Combine that with the injury uncertainty for Chris Carson and the injury-proneness of Rashaad Penny, and Walker could easily be the RB1 of this class when we look back in the next few years.
1.03) Drake London, Atlanta Falcons (WR1)
After Hall, Drake London is tied with Kenny Pickett as the next most likely player to be selected first overall. Even so, it’s only happening in just 1.6% of leagues. There is a 74% chance London will be available at No. 3 overall and as high as 20% when we get to pick 5.
London is definitely an intriguing option from a volume perspective. He has the opportunity to establish himself as the main receiver but will have Kyle Pitts and Cordarrelle Patterson hogging up targets. The uncertainty of Marcus Mariota and Desmond Ridder is a concern. Nevertheless, the Falcons should be chasing a lot of games in the next year or two, so if you need a receiver to hit the ground running, London could be that option.
1.04) Treylon Burks, Tennessee Titans (WR2)
After the Titans essentially swapped A.J. Brown for Treylon Burks, it’s no surprise to see the former-Arkansas receiver with an ADP of fourth overall. Burks makes it beyond this pick just 50% of the time and is selected fourth overall in 25% of drafts.
Burks is another player who should command a high percentage of targets. However, the Titans are generally a run-first team, and in the short term, that hurts his upside. Additionally, the Titans are expected to be competitive this year. Thus, we could see them leading a lot, which could further hurt Burks’ opportunities. Burks may not be the best short-term pick, but looking longer term, his ceiling is certainly worth his current ADP.
1.05) Garrett Wilson, New York Jets (WR3)
In contrast to Burks, Garrett Wilson landed in a prime spot for his short-term dynasty value. Sure the Jets took Hall in the second round, but we have no idea what their run game will look like behind that line. Additionally, the Jets are expected to be chasing games a lot. Wilson has more competition for targets, but there should be more targets to go around.
That is why he is essentially seeing a similar ADP pattern to Burks. Wilson is available with the fourth pick 78% of the time and with the fifth pick 58% of the time. That then drops nearly 30% to pick 6, indicating a clear tier ending. Therefore, if you want to get Wilson’s upside, you’ll likely have to trade into the top five.
1.06) Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions (WR4)
Jameson Williams has the potential to be the steal of rookie drafts, especially in the short term. Take all the positives we’ve said about the guys above and you have them all in Williams. He should command a decent share of targets, and the Lions could be chasing a lot.
Williams also has the home-run hitting speed that could see him put up some exciting long-range touchdowns which are gold for fantasy managers. Available more than 80% of the time with the sixth pick, if you need a receiver, sitting at six and taking Williams is the smart move.
1.07) Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers (QB1)
The intricacies of superflex have given Kenny Pickett a strange ADP profile. He is essentially picked periodically throughout the first round, and it can be tough to predict. A lot will depend on the quarterback situations in your league.
If you have a player picking early who desperately needs a QB, expect Pickett to go early. If that’s not the case, he’s available as much as 25% of the time with the ninth pick in drafts.
1.08) Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints (WR5)
If the QB situation in New Orleans was better, you could imagine Chris Olave being up alongside his former Ohio State teammate in ADP. Still, he does have an opportunity in what is a largely second-rate receiving group outside of Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry. However, there is uncertainty surrounding both of them. If they cannot get back to their old ways, then Olave could establish himself as the WR1.
1.09) Skyy Moore, Kansas City Chiefs (WR6)
Judging what to do with Skyy Moore is tough, and it reflects in his ADP profile. There is a clear ADP drop-off from Olave to Moore with Moore being selected just 10% of the time in the top seven selections. The problem is that the opportunity in Kansas City looks perfect, but we’ve seen players struggle to make the most of that opportunity consistently.
Moore seems like a huge gamble with the ninth pick, but it also reflects the uncertainty that there is after the top eight. Moore is a swing-for-the-fences type pick, and the guy going behind him might be the better player for that.
1.10) Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers (WR7)
There is a lot of expectation on Christian Watson. Anyone expected to be catching passes from Aaron Rodgers gets that expectation. However, being on the board 80% of the time with the ninth pick shows that the hype has not gone overboard for Watson. He has the talent and opportunity to be an intriguing value here.
1.11) James Cook, Buffalo Bills (RB3)
Do not get sucked in by the name when reading this fantasy rookie mock draft. While James Cook is the brother of Dalvin Cook, they are very different backs. They are also in very different situations in terms of who is around them. The Bills have a high-octane passing offense, and Josh Allen plays as essentially a goal-line back outside of his QB duties.
The ceiling for Cook is extremely limited. That reflects in the fact that he is available with the last pick of the first round in 50% of rookie drafts. At this point, gambling on an RB is never a mistake, but going any earlier in the first should be avoided.
1.12) George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers (WR8)
Whenever the Steelers draft a wide receiver, there will always be excitement. That was no different with George Pickens, who has all the tools to have success in the NFL but comes with plenty of question marks. Immediately, the QB situation is a concern that needs to be considered. Pickens’ short-term value feels capped by that, but talent-wise, there is certainly the potential for incredible value here.